Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Labor wipe out in New England?

The latest NSW election poll released this morning has attracted attention because it shows Labor's primary vote down to 22%. The commentary to this point has been on state wide implications. I am interested in New England.

As best I can work out quickly based on the ABC's Anthony Green election calculator, we are looking at the following New England result in the lower House:

  • Nationals 9
  • Independent 3
  • Liberal 5
  • Labor 0
  • Green 0

This would be the best Liberal result, the worst Labor result, since Federation, while the Nationals regain majority status. 

1 comment:

Greg said...

Jim, a report in the Herald suggests that the ALP may fail to win a single seat here in the Hunter.

I suppose that is possible, but when preferences are involved it is rarely that simple. I understand that Wallsend is the safest ALP seat in the Hunter with a 15% swing needed to unseat the sitting member. If a projected 18% swing is repeated throughout the Hunter then the ALP would indeed fail to win any seats there.

My gut feel is that independents will gain a strong presence in the Hunter. Personally, I would prefer that we instead had a strong representation in the new government, assuming that it will be LNP.