Monday, March 23, 2015

Polling shows Coalition ahead in NSW, but suggests Labor to win Ballina

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the Coalition leading Labor by 54 to 46 per cent on a NSW state wide two-party-preferred basis. With the Coalition apparently set to win, the focus has now turned to individual seats that might change with a special focus on the National held Northern Rivers seats of  Ballina, Lismore and Tweed where the backlash against coal seam is especially strong.

Recent Reachtel polling suggested Labor is set to win Ballina, despite a National's margin of 24.6 per cent. An interesting feature of the Ballina poll is the shift in the Green/ALP vote. At the last elections, the collapse in the ALP vote saw the Greens out vote Labor. Now the Green vote is slightly down, while the ALP vote has resurged. 

Outside the Northern Rivers, Tamworth is another electorate where environmental issues are important. Here the Green vote has traditionally been very low. The main interest in Tamworth is whether or not independent Peter Draper can regain the seat he lost at the last state election. 

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