Australian census 2016 - tracing New England's decline over time

The 2016 ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) census allows you to sort regionally. The results summarised in the following table provide a snapshot of New England's continued structural decline.

The regions selected cover the boundaries recommended by the Nicholas Royal Commission boundaries that were used in the 1967 plebiscite. They exclude some western areas that form parts of other statistical divisions.  .

To put the numbers in the table into historical perspective:

• In 1911, New England's population was about 429,000. In that year, the NSW population was 1,699,376 (New England 25.7%), Australia's population 4,573,786 (New England 9.37%). In 1911, the population of Queensland was 623,123, South Australia 419,392 and Western Australia 293,923. The initial new state boundaries excluded the Hunter. The Cohen Royal Commission (1924) estimated the population in that initial area at 359,000, so more than WA and a bit behind South Australia.
• By 1950 with decentralisation and separation agitation relaunching, the NSW population had increased to 3,242,057 with a significant proportion of that growth in Sydney. The Queensland population had increased to 1,205,418, South Australia to 722,843, WA to 572,649. I haven't calculated precise figures for New England, but it was something around 700,000. The area had declined as a proportion of the NSW population, had fallen significantly behind Queensland, but was still level pegging with South Australia and well ahead of WA.
• By 1961 when Operation Seventh State was launched leading up to the 1967 plebiscite, New South Wales' population had increased to 3,951,65, again with Sydney attracting the lion's share of the growth. The Queensland population had jumped to 1,540,251, South Australia to 979,351 and WA to 755,213. I can't find my reference with New England's population, but I think it was around 760,000. Further down as a proportion of NSW, now well behind South Australia in total, but still level pegging with Western Australia. 
• If we now track forward to the statistics shown in the table, you can see that New England's relative decline has continued. In 2011, its population of 1,371,776 was 6.38% of Australia's population, declining to 5.89% in 2016 even though the total population had increased to 1,425,728.. In 2011, its share of the NSW population had dropped to 19.83%, falling further to 19.06% in 2016. In 2016 South Australia, often considered something of an economic basket case, had a population of 1,676,653.   

In addition to these higher level changes, there have been major distributional changes. These are discussed following the table.  .

New England Comparative Population Statistics
2011					2016
	Population	% of Australia	% of NSW	% of New England	Population	% of Australia	% of NSW	% of New England	% increase over 2011
Australia	21,507,717				24,206,201				12.55
NSW	6,917,658	32.16	19.83		7,480,228	30.90	19.06		8.13
Greater Sydney	4,391,658	20.42	63.48		4,823,991	19.93	64.49		9.84
New England North West	182,559	0.85	2.64	13.31	185,787	0.77	2.48	13.03	1.77
Richmond Tweed	236,498	1.10	3.42	17.24	245,164	1.01	3.28	17.20	3.66
Coffs Harbour-Grafton	135,182	0.63	1.95	9.85	138,904	0.57	1.86	9.74	2.75
Mid North Coast	208,090	0.97	3.01	15.17	216,003	0.89	2.89	15.15	3.80
Hunter Valley exc Newcastle	251,865	1.17	3.64	18.36	269,688	1.11	3.61	18.92	7.08
Newcastle Lake Macquarie	357,562	1.66	5.17	26.07	370,182	1.53	4.95	25.96	3.53
Total New England	1,371,756	6.38	19.83		1,425,728	5.89	19.06		3.93

There have been important distributional changes within these aggregate figures over time. 

Up to the end of the seventies, the inland and coastal populations within New England outside the Hunter were broadly in balance. Then came the sea-change phenomenon which led to rapid growth in the coastal populations.To a degree, this growth was unstable and has now slowed because jobs did not follow the growth, leading to increased poverty. .

In 2011, the North Coast population reached 597,770, up slightly to 600,071 in 2016. Stagnation in the inland population meant that from rough balance, the New England North West population fell to 31.49% of the coastal population in 2011, down to 30.96% in 2016. 

The area was affected by fragmentation too from outside forces. The growth of Brisbane and the Gold Coast conurbation helped drive growth in the Richmond and especially the Tweed Rive Valleys. By 2016, the Richmond-Tweed population had grown to 245,164 or 17.2% of the New England population, roughly equaling the inland New England population including the Upper Hunter. 

In the south, two drive variables came into play. Sydney's growth extended into the Lower Hunter While Newcastle suffered from losses associated with the industrial restructuring of the 1990s including the closure of the BHP as well as Sydney blindness, its closeness to Sydney, its life style opportunities and the rise of coal mining and tourism all contributed to growth in Lake Macquarie, Newcastle and the Llower Hunter. The growth was lower than Sydney's, but high enough to increase the Hunter and especially the Lower Hunter's share of the New England population. 

In 1911, the population of Newcastle and the main nearby towns including Maitland and Cessnock was 71,000 or 16.5%  of New England's population.   In 2016, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie on their own totaled 25.96% of the New England population. The Hunter Valley as a whole totaled 44.88% of the New England population. 

The second southern driver, one not recognised because of border myopia, was the rise of Canberra.

In 1961, the ACT's population was just 76,000, although it had begun to grow rapidly. The population of the ACT plus what is now called the Capital Region, those areas most within Canberra's economic sphere of influence, was less than the inland New England population. In 2016, the ACT's population reached 403,468 with a further 224,288 living the Capital Region for a total population of 627,756. 

The effects have been quite profound, for it has shifted the economic center of gravity south. Lacking any major centre of economic gravity, New England has fragmented, drawn in multiple directions north and south with very little present control over its future.